US embassy cable - 99ALMATY12359

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ALMATY 012359 
 
FROM EMBASSY DUSHANBE 
 
DEPT FOR S/NIS - BEYRLE AND WILSON, EUR/CACEN - 
BOND AND LEVINE 
DEPT ALSO FOR INR/B 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL I2/20/09 
TAGS:  PGOV, PINR, TI 
SUBJECT:  TAJIKISTAN:  SCENES FROM A BACK-ROOM 
RESHUFFLE 
 
REF:  FBIS RESTON VA 200804Z DEC 99 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE DOUGLAS B. KENT FOR REASON 
1.5 (D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY.  PRESIDENT RAHMONOV IS 
RESHUFFLINQ HIS CABINET.  A CABINET INSIDER 
DESCRIBED TO US HOW RAHMONOV, TRUE TO CHARACTER, 
IS DOING THIS IN A WAY THAT MAXIMIZES THE 
HUMILIATION OF EVERYONE INVOLVED.  HIS CHOICE FOR 
PRIME MINISTER, THE RELATIVELY UNKNOWN AND 
UNINFLUENTIAL OQIL OQILOV, WAS A SURPRISE TO MANY. 
SOME SPECULATE THAT RAHMONOV'S MAIN INTEREST WAS 
IN APPOINTINQ SOMEONE WHO HASN'T MADE TOO MUCH 
MONEY WORKINQ IN THE GOTI.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) GENERAL HABIB SANQINOV, DEPUTY MINISTER OF 
INTERIOR IN THE GOTI, SUMMONED EMBASSY SENIOR FSN 
DECEMBER 14 TO DISCUSS HIS VIEWS OF PRESIDENT 
RAHMONOV'S PLANS FOR RESHUFFLINQ HIS CABINET -- 
PLANS THAT LED TO THE DECEMBER 20 APPOINTMENT OF 
OQIL OQILOV AS THE NEW PRIME MINISTER (REFTEL). 
 
3.  (C) SANQINOV DESCRIBED A MEETINQ RAHMONOV HAD 
CALLED OF HIS SENIOR DEPUTIES ON OECEMBER 12. 
STARTINQ WITH THEN-PRIME MINISTER YAHYO AZIMOV, 
RAHMONOV BEQAN TO DISCUSS THE RESHUFFLE'S 
IMPLICATIONS FOR THEM.  PHYSICALLY CARESSINQ 
AZIMOV TO MAXIMIZE THE MAN'S HUMILIATION, RAHMONOV 
TOLD AZIMOV HE WOULD NOT BE LEFT WITHOUT A 
POSITION IN THE NEW GOVERNMENT (COMMENT:  WHAT 
THAT WOULD BE, RAHMONOV DID NOT SAY, BUT IT MUST 
HAVE BEEN CLEAR TO EVERYONE PRESENT THAT THE PRIME 
MINISTER'S JOB WAS NOT WHAT RAHMONOV HAD IN MIND). 
 
4.  (C) RAHMONOV THEN ADDRESSED, ONE BY ONE, HIS 
DEPUTY PRIME MINISTERS, MINISTERS, AND COMMITTEE 
CHAIRMEN.  RAHMONOV ENCOURAQED SOME, LIKE DEPUTY 
PRIME MINISTER ABDURAHMON AZIMOV, TO RUN IN 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS NEXT YEAR.  HE TOLD 
OTHERS, LIKE BASQUL DODIKHUDOEVA, THAT HE WOULD 
FIND SOME SORT OF POSITION IN THE NEXT QOVERNMENT 
FOR THEM, ALTHOUQH HE AVOIDED PROMISINQ ANYTHINQ 
SPECIFIC.  HE HAD NO SUQGESTIONS FOR SOME OTHERS, 
SUCH AS ISMAT ESHMIRZOEV -- ALL THEY LEARNED WAS 
THAT THEY WOULD SOON BE OUT OF A JOB.  OEPUTY 
PRIME MINISTERS TURAJONZADA, VAZIROV, AND RASULOV 
-- WHO HAVE BEEN IN OFFICE FOR LESS TIME THAN THE 
OTHERS -- WILL STAY ON IN THEIR CURRENT POSITIONS. 
 
5.  (C) RAHMONOV TOLD HIS CHIEF OF ADMINISTRATION, 
MAHMADNAZAR SALIHOV, TO CONSIDER RUNNINQ FOR A 
SEAT IN THE NEW PARLIAMENT.  SALIHOV -- TRUE TO 
HIS NICKNAME, "MR. STUBBORN" -- OBJECTED. 
RAHMONOV REBUKED HIM, RESPONDING THAT "WE WILL 
WAIT AND SEE WHETHER YOU WILL AQREE TO DO SO OR 
NOT."  ACCORDINQ TO SANQINOV, THE MEETINQ LEFT THE 
FATE OF NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL SECRETARY 
AMIRKUL AZIMOV UNKNOWN (NOTE:  AZIMOV SERVES AS 
RAHMONOV'S TROUBLE-SHOOTER, MOST RECENTLY DURINQ 
THE CRISIS CAUSED BY THE ISLAMIC MOVEMENT OF 
UZBEKISTAN QUERILLA FORCE OPERATINQ ON 
TAJIKISTAN'S TERRITORY AND SEIZINQ KYRQYZ AND 
JAPANESE HOSTAQES IN KYRQYZSTAN.) 
 
6.  (C) ALSO DISCUSSED AT THE MEETINQ WERE 
RAHMONOV'S POLITICAL OPPONENTS.  SANQINOV 
DESCRIBED A VINDICTIVE RAHMONOV RAILINQ AQAINST 
HIS PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIQN OPPONENT, OAVLAT USMON, 
AND HIS WOULD-BE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIQN OPPONENTS, 
SULTAN QUVVATOV AND SEYFIDDIN TURAYEV.  RAHMONOV 
SAID HE PLANNED TO "PURSUE" TURAYEV (COMMENT: 
PROBABLY THE MOST POPULAR OF THE THREE) TO THE 
POINT WHERE TURAYEV LEFT THE COUNTRY.  (COMMENT: 
RAHMONOV NEVER MAKES PEACE WITH HIS RIVALS -- 
ABDUMALIK ABDULLAJANOV, WHO FLED TO UZBEKISTAN, IS 
ANOTHER CASE IN POINT). 
 
NEW PRIME MINISTER'S BIODATA 
--------------------------- 
7.  (C) OQIL OQILOV (ALTERNATIVE SPELLINQ:  AKIL 
AKILOV) WAS BORN IN 1944 IN KHOJAND, LENINABAD 
REQION (THE NORTHERN PART OF TAJIKISTAN).  AFTER 
QRADUATINQ IN CONSTRUCTION ENQINEERINQ FROM A 
MOSCOW INSTITUTE, HE WORKED AS A KHOJAND CITY 
GOVERNMENT CONSTRUCTION OFFICIAL, EVENTUALLY 
BECOMINQ MINISTER OF CONSTRUCTION IN THE 
QOVERNMENT OF THE THEN-TAJIK S.S.R.  HE REMAINED 
IN THE QOVERNMENT THROUQH INDEPENDENCE AND THE 
CIVIL WAR.  RAHMONOV APPOINTED HIM DEPUTY PRIME 
MINISTER IN LATE 1994.  HE SERVED IN THIS POSITION 
UNTIL RAHMONOV SENT HIM PACKINQ IN 1997.  HE 
RETURNED TO KHOJAND, WHERE HE WAS APPOINTED DEPUTY 
CHAIRMAN OF THE REQIONAL HUKUMAT (GOVERNMENT). 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
8.  (C) OQILOV'S APPOINTMENT COMES AS A SURPRISE - 
- HE IS CONSIDERABLY LESS WELL-KNOW AND LESS 
INFLUENTIAL THAN SOME OF THE OTHER INDIVIDUALS WHO 
WERE APPARENTLY IN THE RUNNINQ, SUCH AS DUSHANBE 
MAYOR AND RAHMONOV CONFIDANT MAHMADSAID 
UBAIDULLOEV.  LIKE HIS PREDECESSOR, AZIMOV, HE IS 
A NORTHERNER, AND HIS REGIONAL IDENTITY PROBABLY 
PLAYED AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN HIS SELECTION, WITH 
RAHMONOV KEEPINQ HIS BASE OF SUPPORT BROADER THAN 
HIS NATIVE KULYAB REQION IN THE SOUTH. 
 
9.  (C) SOME OBSERVERS SPECULATE THAT OQILOV'S 
BEINQ OUT OF POWER, AND OUT OF THE CAPITAL, FOR AN 
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME PLAYED IN HIS FAVOR. 
RAHMONOV, THEY SAY, WANTED TO APPOINT SOMEONE WHO 
HAD NOT MADE AS MUCH MONEY IN QOVERNMENT AS HIS 
CURRENT CABINET MEMBERS.  TO ILLUSTRATE THE BANDIT 
CULTURE PREVAILINQ IN THE RAHMONOV REQIME, 
SANQINOV TOLD EMBASSY SENIOR FSN OF A RECENT VISIT 
TO DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER ABDURAHMON AZIMOV'S 
OFFICE.  AS THEY WERE TALKINQ, A TELEPHONE CALL 
FROM PRIME MINISTER YAHYO AZIMOV CAME THROUQH.  IN 
FRONT OF SANQINOV, ABDURAHMON AZIMOV COMPLAINED TO 
THE PRIME MINISTER THAT "YOU HAVE BOUQHT ALMOST 
HALF OF KHOJAND AND HAVE ENOUQH TO LIVE ON.  I 
HAVE NOT QOT ANYTHINQ BEHIND ME AND HAVE NO 
PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE!" 
 
KENT