US embassy cable - 03KATHMANDU1644

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KATHMANDU 001644 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SA, SA/INS, DS/IP/SA, CA/OCS 
LONDON FOR POL/GURNEY 
NSC FOR MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/2013 
TAGS: PTER, CASC, ASEC, NP, Maoist Insurgency 
SUBJECT: NEPAL: MAOISTS BREAK CEASE-FIRE, ATTEMPT TO BLAME 
GOVERNMENT 
 
REF: KATHMANDU 1620 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Michael E. Malinowski for reasons 1.5 (b) and 
 (d). 
 
Summary 
======== 
 
1.  (SBU) On August 27, the Maoists unilaterally withdrew 
from the cease-fire, blaming the Government of Nepal (GON) 
for refusing to accept a constituent assembly and for alleged 
attacks on Maoist cadres over the past month.  The security 
forces have adopted new Rules of Engagement that allow 
commanders to aggressively pursue Maoists in the field. 
Although at least one facilitator in the peace talks is 
continuing last-ditch efforts to save the peace process, we 
expect the Maoists to resume full-scale violence against 
GON--and possibly civilian--targets.  The Embassy held an EAC 
(septel) and disseminated a Warden Message.  End summary. 
 
Maoists Withdraw from Cease-Fire 
================================= 
 
2.  (U) In a chilling replay of their unilateral decision to 
break the 2001 ceasefire, on August 27, the Communist Party 
of Nepal (Maoist), CPN(M), leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal (a.k.a. 
Prachanda) announced via the group's website that the 
cease-fire, code of conduct, and peace talks have "lost their 
relevance" (website:  http://cpnm.org).  (Note:  The "loss of 
relevance" line echoes a similar Maoist press release that 
ended the 2001 government-Maoist peace talks.  The 
announcement in 2001 was followed by simultaneous attacks on 
security forces.  End note.)  Prachanda blamed the Government 
of Nepal's (GoN's) refusal to accept a constituent assembly 
and attacks on Maoist cadres that were "intiated" by the 
Royal Nepalese Army (RNA).  (Full translation of the 
statement is provided at paragraph 7.)  Prachanda states that 
the Maoists remain open to talks, but only if the GoN 
concedes to all of the Maoists' demands. 
 
Security Forces Reply 
====================== 
 
3.  (C) Brigadier General Kul Bahadur Khadka, Director of 
Military Operations, reported to the DATT that groups of 
Maoists are massing in the districts of Pyuthan (in Nepal's 
mid-west region), Lamjung (in Nepal's western region), and 
Udayapur (in Nepal's eastern region).  He stated further that 
the National Security Council has directed the RNA to use its 
pre-cease-fire Rules of Engagement, which allows security 
forces to actively patrol and pursue armed Maoist 
concentrations.  The RNA Division Commanders have been given 
authority to conduct operations within their theater of 
responsbility, as they see fit.  According to Khadka, the 
Police and Army have ordered the abandonment of roughly 50 
small posts in the Terai (Nepal's lowlands), with the 
personnel to be concentrated in larger, more defensible 
positions.  Some small posts in the hills and mountains have 
already been abandoned. 
 
Peace Talks Facilitator Holds Out Hope 
======================================== 
 
4.  (SBU)  The Ambassador met with peace talks facilitator 
Shailendra Upadhaya on August 27.  Upadhaya reported that the 
Maoists were "suspicious" of the GoN's actions and intentions 
even before the first round of negotiations in April.  He 
credited the facilitators' efforts with reassuring the 
Maoists enough to bring them to the table.  Upadhaya said he 
hopes to meet with Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa on 
August 28 or 29 to press him to issue an unequivocal 
statement committing the Government to continue the peace 
talks and to sign a proposed human rights monitoring accord. 
A clear statement of the GON's peaceful intentions would help 
dispel the "confusion" generated by Maoist propaganda that 
the Government is not interested in negotiations.  In 
Upadhaya's opinion, the Maoists are not anxious to return to 
large-scale conflict at this point, and some hope that the 
peace process can be rescued remains.  He believes that 
Prachanda's statement is only a tactic to pressure the 
Government into conceding to the Maoist demand for a 
constituent assembly.  Upadhaya reported that Padma Ratna 
Tuladhar, the peace talks facilitator most closely associated 
with the Maoist leadership, had a meeting with the Prime 
Minister on August 27, in which the Prime Minister requested 
Tuladhar use his influence to keep the Maoists at the 
negotiating table.  Upadhaya expects that the Maoists will 
utilize contacts and surrogates within civil society to 
assist them in shifting responsibility for the collapse of 
the talks on the GoN.  Upadhaya does not believe his efforts 
have a good chance of success.  However, he believes that the 
effort is worthwhile.  If it fails and the Maoists remain 
intransigent, then the only recourse the Government would 
have is to try to "crush" the Maoists. 
 
Police 
====== 
 
5.  (C)  A senior police official told us on August 27 that 
he believes that the Maoists have already set up special 
commando units prepared to carry out targeted bombings 
attacks against high-ranking GON officials in the Kathmandu 
Valley.  Another police source confirmed that the Maoists 
have already drafted a target list of 22 GON officials. 
 
Security of American Citizens 
============================== 
 
6.  (U) The Embassy held an EAC meeting today to discuss the 
security situation (septel).  The Embassy disseminated a 
Warden Message notifying American citizens on the turn of 
events.  The Embassy will continue to monitor the situation 
and notify American citizens as appropriate. 
 
 
Comment 
======== 
 
7.  (C) As expected, the Maoists are attempting to blame the 
GoN and RNA for its unilateral decision to break the 
cease-fire.  They will make an effort with their assets in 
Nepalese civil society, including human rights groups, to 
rationalize or justify renewed Maoist violence as a reaction 
to Government abuses or aggression.  This is unlikely to fly, 
however, with a public increasingly aware of Maoist 
depredations.  As the Embassy reported in reftel, the Maoists 
have been flagarantly violating the cease-fire since August 
1.  In the coming days, the Embassy expects that the Maoists 
will folow up this rhetorical broadside with military attacks 
on the security forces, although probably not on reinforced, 
fixed positions.  It is also possible that the Maoists will 
increase operations in urban areas, including Kathmandu, 
possibly including attacks on senior GON officials--a 
signficant change in tactics from the Maoists' pre-cease-fire 
modus operandi. 
 
Maoist Press Statement 
======================= 
 
7.  (U) Begin Translation: 
 
Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) 
Central Committee 
 
Press Release 
 
It is a known fact that our party was involved in peace talks 
and a cease-fire with the old regime with the view of the 
strategic balance in the civil war and in order to honor the 
people's desire to find a peaceful way out.  Our party had 
taken the cease-fire and the code of conduct very seriously, 
and we naturally expected similar seriousness from the old 
regime.  The People's Liberation Army under our Party 
observed the cease-fire and code of conduct in letter and 
spirit, while from the very beginning the Royal Army under 
the old regime kept on violating it.  Even after the 
announcement of the cease-fire, the Royal Army not only 
increased unecessary checkpoints and arrests but also rounded 
up and arrested a group of the People's Army personnel who 
were peacefully staying in Kanchanpur and mercilessly killed 
our workers in different places, including Darchula, 
Makwanpur, and Bhojpur.  Such activities carried out by the 
Royal Army at the beginning of the cease-fire hurt the hopes 
and aspirations of our Party and the people for a peaceful, 
political way out. 
 
In spite of all this, with the sense of responsbility to the 
country and the people, our Party continued with efforts not 
to spoil the environment for talks.  At the first round of 
formal peace talks, our party presented the minimum political 
agenda.  To strengthen the implementation of the cease-fire 
and code of conduct, which had been weakened by the 
undesirable activities of the Royal Army, and to continue 
talks, an agreement was reached to confine the Royal Army 
within five kilometers of their barracks during the second 
round.  The Royal Army not only rejected the agreement 
outright, but the Army pressured the government to withdraw 
from the commitment.  After this incident, the peace talks 
became orphaned and suffered from a serious crisis of 
confidence on the possibility of a peaceful and progressive 
political way out.  When the new talks team of the old regime 
committed in principle to discipline the Royal Army and in 
the context of releasing our Party's Central Committee 
members, our Party directed its talks team to participate in 
the third round of peace talks with new hope. 
 
The way the establishment presented its concept paper not 
only ignored existing, fundamental problems, but also 
appeared to hatch a conspiracy to strengthen the feudalistic 
retrogression of October 4 with sweet toffees of reform.  The 
concept paper, which even failed to address the demands of 
the major political parties who support constitutional 
monarchy and multiparty democracy, virtually finished the 
relevance of the talks by asking us to politically surrender 
by laying down our arms.  Our talks team, while rejecting the 
offer totally, made it clear that the fourth round of talks 
could only take place if the old regime comes up with a new 
proposal that includes constituent assembly, otherwise there 
is no meaning in the continuation of the talks.  Just when 
the third round of talks were on, the Royal Army rounded up 
two civilians and seventeen of our unarmed workers, who were 
holding their Area Committee Meeting in Doramba of Ramechhap 
District, and slaughtered them by tying their hands behind 
their backs.  In this manner the concept paper presented by 
the establishment and the genocide of nineteen people carried 
out by the Royal Army in Doramba, virtually announced the 
break-up of the peace talks militarily.  The shedding of 
crocodile tears and by making hue and cry about being 
committed to the talks is an example of extreme immorality 
and cunningness of the establishment to mislead the country 
and the world at large. 
 
It is known to everyone that our party is a revolutionary 
party fighting for a people's republic.  We had come to the 
table for talks by withholding our slogan for people's 
republic for the time being and sought to resolve the problem 
through the election of a constituent assembly to fulfill the 
people's desire for peace and for stopping foreign 
interference carried out by the old regime, which is 
dangerous to national independence.  The slogan of 
constituent assembly is not the slogan of communist 
revolutionaries.  We do not see any reason to hesitate for a 
constituent assembly for those who believe in people's 
sovereignty.  To hold portions of the Constitution as 
unchangeable and to protest against constituent assembly 
proves that the old regime does not have faith in the people. 
 Our stand for constituent assembly is to ensure that the 
right of the people to chose and run its own political system 
is not undermined.  There can be nothing more scientific and 
democratic than letting the people decide, when there is a 
triangular power struggle underway and danger to the nation's 
independence is increasing, the national interests of the 
country.  Unfortunately, the old regime is not ready to make 
the people sovereign through constituent assembly. 
 
Under the circumstances, there is no alternative for the 
Nepalese people than to protest against the despotic 
activities of the old regime.  Therefore, our Party wants to 
make it clear that the relevance of the cease-fire, the code 
of conduct, and the peace process with the old regime has 
ended.  Our Party wants to extend its sincere gratitude and 
thanks to the peace talks facilitators, all the political 
parties, human rights organizations, intellectuals, the 
people, and friends here and abroad and express our desire to 
continue our relationship through regular interactions.  We 
will not close the door for talks from our side.  We can 
again sit for talks in order to establish people's sovereign 
power and fundamental interest.  Our party heartily requests 
all the people-oriented powers here and abroad to create such 
environment and extend cooperation. 
 
August 27, 2003 
 
Prachanda 
Chairman 
CPN (Maoists) Central Committee 
 
End translation. 
MALINOWSKI