US embassy cable - 03RANGOON1029

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001029 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV 
COMMERCE FOR ITA JEAN KELLY 
TREASURY FOR OASIA JEFF NEIL 
USPACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, BM 
SUBJECT: BURMESE GENERAL KHIN NYUNT AS PRIME MINISTER: 
PROMOTION OR DEMOTION? 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.5 (B,D) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  SPDC Chairman Senior General Than Shwe's 
unexpected August 25 realignment of Burma's military and 
government hierarchy may undercut SPDC Secretary-1 General 
Khin Nyunt, the regime's number three leader.  Khin Nyunt's 
new assignment as Prime Minister is expected to be largely 
ceremonial and his continued control of the powerful military 
intelligence portfolio may be temporary.  Chairman Than Shwe 
also ousted five cabinet members regarded as Khin Nyunt 
supporters, and replaced them with his own proteges, four 
generals and a retired colonel.  The new changes are 
consistent with Than Shwe's consolidation of power that began 
with the marginalization, and subsequent death last year, of 
former strongman Ne Win.  We do not expect at this point that 
the new alignment will lead the regime to change its tune on 
the NLD or alter its defiance of the international community. 
 END SUMMARY. 
 
CH-CH-CH-CHANGES 
---------------- 
 
2.  (C) In the GOB's normal evening radio news broadcast on 
August 25, the SPDC announced that Chairman Than Shwe had 
appointed General Khin Nyunt, formerly the regime's number 
three man, as Prime Minister.  Than Shwe, who previously held 
the Prime Minister job himself, also promoted the regime's 
number four man, Lt General Soe Win, to replace Khin Nyunt, 
and Lt General Thein Sein (a former regional commander) to 
move up to SPDC Secretary-2. 
 
3. (C) Khin Nyunt's replacement as S-1, Soe Win, is the 
reputed planner and executioner of the May 30 "Black Friday" 
ambush of NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi, and a Than Shwe 
loyalist who was earlier this year promoted to Lt General and 
elevated to the S-2 position.  The same broadcast also 
announced the retirement of five marginal GOB ministers, all 
of whom were regarded as Khin Nyunt supporters.  Among those 
ousted was General David Abel, the only non-Buddhist member 
of the cabinet and the regime's former economic guru, held in 
high regard by Burma's business and diplomatic communities. 
 
WHO'S IN, WHO,S OUT 
------------------- 
 
4.  (C)  Embassy sources agree that the Prime Minister 
appointment "bumps" Khin Nyunt up and out of the way, 
depending if he retains control of military intelligence and 
his seat on the SPDC.  Significantly, none of the newly 
appointed ministers are known to be Khin Nyunt supporters. 
The new Secretary-1, Lt General Soe Win, is considered a 
faithful "yes man" to Than Shwe.  He is widely assumed to be 
the mastermind and the on-scene commander of the SPDC's 
violent ambush on ASSK and her NLD convoy in Depeyin on May 
30.  Than Shwe only recently elevated Soe Win within the SPDC 
to the long-vacant post of Secretary-2, then shortly after 
promoted him to Lieutenant General.  New to the top hierarchy 
is Lt General Thein Sein as SPDC Secretary-2, who vaulted 
over several other generals for the regime's number four 
position. 
 
NEWLY APPOINTED 
--------------- 
 
5. (C) The new SPDC and cabinet changes, according to the 
official GOB announcement (brief bio notes in parentheses): 
 
General Khin Nyunt, Prime Minister (former SPDC Secretary-1 
and currently holds the military intelligence portfolio as 
Chief of OCMI). 
 
Lt General Soe Win, SPDC Secretary-1 (former SPDC S-2, USDA 
Central Executive Committee member, mastermind of May 30 
attack). 
 
Lt General Thein Sein, SPDC Secretary-2 (former Adjutant 
General, USDA Rangoon Division Chair, Myanmar War Veterans 
Organization Chairman, responsible for organizing new 
"People's Militias"). 
 
U Ko Lay, Minister at the Prime Minister's Office (former 
Rangoon Mayor, USDA leader, retired colonel). 
 
Major General Thein Swe, Minister at the Prime Minister's 
Office (former OCMI Department head, Air Force Officer, son 
runs Myanmar Times). 
 
Brigadier General Thura Myint Maung, Minister for Religious 
Affairs (former Deputy Minister for Home Affairs, is a USDA 
leader). 
 
Brigadier General Thein Aung, Minister for Forestry (former 
Deputy Minister for Energy, USDA leader). 
 
Major General Htay Oo, Minister for Cooperatives (former 
regional commanding officer). 
 
Retired: 
 
Lt General Min Thein, Minister at the SPDC Chairman's Office 
Brigadier General Abel, Minister at the SPDC Chairman's Office 
U Pan Aung, Minister at the Prime Minister's Office (retired 
military officer) 
Lt General Tin Ngwe, Minister for Cooperatives 
U Aung Khin, Minister for Religious Affairs (retired military 
officer) 
 
 
COMMENT:  IS KHIN NYUNT OUT? 
---------------------------- 
 
6. (C) The changes appear to be a continuation of Than 
Shwe,s 10-year effort to consolidate power.  In 2002, Than 
Swe ordered the arrest of family members of former strongman 
Ne Win for alleged coup plotting, signaling the demise of Ne 
Win's quiet, but firm, influence on the SPDC.  Ne Win died 
with little fanfare last year, apparently creating an opening 
for Than Shwe, should he so choose, to further marginalize 
Khin Nyunt, a former Ne Win favorite. 
 
7.  (C) One wild card in this realignment, however, is 
whether Prime Minister Khin Nyunt will keep his position as 
the Chief of OCMI, the Gestapo-fashioned military 
intelligence apparatus that keeps all of Burma's government, 
military, and society in check.  With the intelligence 
portfolio, he has teeth.  Without it, he'll be nothing more 
than a figurehead.  End comment. 
Martinez