US embassy cable - 03COLOMBO1482

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001482 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR D, SA, SA/INS, EUR/NB, EUR/WE 
NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  08-25-13 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PHUM, PREF, CE, FR, NO, LTTE - Peace Process 
SUBJECT:  Peace Process update:  In Paris, Tigers say 
they aim for talks; President urges action on camp 
 
Refs:  Colombo 1466, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Charge' 
d'Affaires. Reasons 1.5 (b, d). 
 
1.  (C) This update of Sri Lanka's peace process reviews 
the following: 
 
>> On margins of ongoing meeting in Paris, Tiger 
official says group aims to restart talks 
 
>> President Kumaratunga demands that GSL take steps 
against unauthorized Tiger camp in east 
 
>> Tensions in east between Muslims and the Tigers 
continue to percolate 
 
>> The flavor of the Peace Process:  Latest poll shows 
support for peace process higher than ever 
 
========================================== 
Mainly Positive Vibes from Tigers in Paris 
========================================== 
 
2.  (SBU) The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) 
meeting in Paris, which began on August 21, is 
continuing.  Few details are emerging from the closed 
door meeting, which involves high-level LTTE officials 
and Tamil supporters of the group from outside of Sri 
Lanka.  On the margins of the meeting, however, Tiger 
officials have been making mainly upbeat comments to the 
press.  S.P. Thamilchelvam, the leader of the LTTE 
delegation and the group's political wing chief, for 
example, was quoted as stating:  "We want to resume the 
peace talks; it is on that basis that we are meeting in 
Paris."  (Note:  The Tigers withdrew from the talks with 
the Sri Lankan government in April.)  Thamilchelvam went 
on to say that the meeting's participants were closely 
reviewing the government's July proposal for creating an 
interim structure in the north/east.  The GSL's proposal 
was "ambiguous," he said, and the group was developing 
counter-proposals to present to the government.  He did 
not provide any details regarding the nature of the 
counter-proposals, however. 
 
3.  (C) COMMENT:  At this point, the meeting in Paris 
appears to be proceeding in as positive a direction for 
the peace track as might be hoped.  Thamilchelvam and 
the rest of his LTTE team, for example, are being very 
careful with their words, and seem to want to smooth 
things out and not inflame matters with the government. 
That said, tentative indications are that the LTTE's 
counter-proposals could well be stiff ones, with the 
group pressing for maximum power in the north/east. 
The planned presence at the Paris meeting of Norwegian 
Special Envoy Erik Solheim later this week will 
hopefully convince participants to endorse realistic 
counter-proposals, not ones too onerous for the GSL to 
consider.  END COMMENT. 
 
======================================= 
Kumaratunga Demands Action on LTTE Camp 
======================================= 
 
4.  (SBU) President Kumaratunga has entered the fray 
over the LTTE's unauthorized military camp in the east. 
In an August 21 letter to Prime Minister Wickremesinghe, 
which her office subsequently made public, the president 
demanded that the government take "action" against the 
LTTE's "Wan Ela" camp, which the Norwegian-run Sri Lanka 
Monitoring Mission (SLMM) ruled in July violated the 
February 2002 ceasefire accord.  In her letter, 
Kumaratunga did not specify exactly what the government 
should do about the camp except to state "the authority 
of the government should be exercised immediately to 
have the camp withdrawn."  The president's letter also 
criticizes what she characterizes as the SLMM's 
"limited" enforcement ability and the "heavily flawed" 
ceasefire agreement.  It is not known whether the prime 
minister has responded to the president's letter as of 
yet. 
 
5.  (C) COMMENT:  The president and her advisers have 
been somewhat feisty of late regarding the peace 
process, as if they believe the government is newly 
vulnerable on that score.  The Tigers' refusal to vacate 
the Wan Ela camp, their assassination of opponents, and 
their violent attacks on Muslims in the east have 
probably raised public skepticism to some extent (see 
below re latest polling), but the acerbic tone the 
president has used in making her criticisms, and the 
fact that the government has basically chosen to ignore 
her, are almost certainly not helping improve stressful 
cohabitation ties.  END COMMENT. 
Tensions Continue to Percolate in the East 
========================================== 
 
6.  (SBU) There continues to be a haze of tension over 
the east following the murders of four Muslims last 
week, presumably at the hands of Tiger hitmen (see 
Reftels).  Security has been stepped up, with military 
and police increasing their patrols in the region. 
Despite the enhanced security presence, Muslims and the 
LTTE remain at each other's throats, with four Tamil 
youths abducted in the town of Ampara on August 23, 
while two Muslims from Batticaloa remain unaccounted for 
and are presumed to have been kidnapped by the Tigers. 
In the meantime, a hartal (work stoppage) was observed 
by Tamils on August 25 in Trincomalee area.  No violence 
was reported. 
 
7.  (C) COMMENT:  LTTE-Muslim relations in the east are 
always tense and are going through one of their periodic 
bad patches right now.  Under fierce criticism from 
Muslim politicians, who are clearly getting increasingly 
exasperated, the government appears to be doing its best 
to clamp down, but it has shown little inclination to 
take on the LTTE.  In the meantime, although it is 
unconfirmed, there are continued reports that small 
knots of Muslims are banding together to take on the 
LTTE.  Given the effectiveness of LTTE forces, this 
effort is unlikely to succeed, but Sri Lanka could be in 
for a spike in Muslim extremism.  END COMMENT. 
 
========================================== 
Peace Process Earns High Marks with Public 
========================================== 
 
8.  (C) In our "flavor of the peace process" section, 
Sri Lankans have given the 20-month old peace process 
the highest vote of confidence yet in a recent poll. 
Conducted in May by the Center for Policy Alternatives 
(CPA), a well-respected local think-tank, the poll 
reports that 87.4 percent of Sri Lankans believe that 
face-to-face talks between the government and the LTTE 
are the best way to bring peace to the country.  This 
seeming endorsement of the GSL's peace track flags a 
steady upward trend, improving on 80 percent support at 
the beginning of the peace process in December 2001 and 
83 percent approval six months ago.  Assessing the 
numbers along ethnic lines, the CPA poll showed a 
greater than 85 percent support from each of the 
Sinhalese, Tamil, and Muslim communities.  The poll also 
revealed high approval for the Norwegian government's 
peace facilitation effort. 
 
9.  (C) COMMENT:  Despite ups-and-downs in the process 
and the occasional hot criticism from the opposition, 
the government's efforts for peace with the LTTE have 
seemed to be buoyed all along by strong public support. 
The CPA poll results appear to underscore the depth and 
breadth of such support.  There is considerable lag time 
in gathering poll results in Sri Lanka, however, and 
much water has passed under the bridge since May.  Some 
of the news since that timeframe -- such as the Tokyo 
donors conference -- has no doubt served to reinforce 
support for the peace track.  That said, the 
intensification of the LTTE's aggressive tactics in 
recent weeks may have added a degree of skepticism.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
10.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
ENTWISTLE