US embassy cable - 03KATHMANDU1552

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001552 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS AND DS/IP/SA 
STATE PLEASE ALSO PASS TO USAID/ANE 
LONDON FOR POL - GURNEY 
NSC FOR MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, ASEC, CASC, NP, Maoist Insurgency 
SUBJECT: NEPAL:  GOVERNMENT NEGOTIATOR "CAUTIOUSLY 
OPTIMISTIC" ABOUT UPCOMING TALKS WITH MAOISTS 
 
REF: A. KATHMANDU 1431 
     B. KATHMANDU 1423 
 
Classified By: DCM ROBERT K. BOGGS.  REASON:  1.5 (B,D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C)  The Government of Nepal's (GON) peace negotiator and 
Information Minister Kamal Thapa told the Ambassador on 
August 14 that he is "cautiously optimistic" about the third 
round of talks with Maoist insurgents, scheduled to be held 
in the southwestern city of Nepalgunj on August 17.  Instead 
of allowing the Maoists to determine the agenda and dominate 
the discussion as happened in earlier rounds of talks, the 
GON team plans to present a "comprehensive" package of 
political reform proposals during the meeting.  Thapa said 
that in a private meeting with Maoist ideologue Baburam 
Bhattarai on August 12 he asked that the insurgents halt 
their threats against US-sponsored development programs. 
Thapa promised the Ambassador to raise the safety and 
security of all foreign aid workers in the talks on August 
17.  According to Thapa, Bhattarai credited Indian pressure 
in part for the Maoist agreement to meet for a third round. 
End summary. 
 
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NEGOTIATIONS IN NEPALGUNJ 
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2.  (U)  After a hiatus of more than three 
months--interspersed with informal Government-Maoist meetings 
and repeated Maoist threats to return to violence--the 
Government of Nepal (GON) announced on August 12 that the 
long-delayed third round of talks will be held on August 17 
in the southwestern city of Nepalgunj.  (Note:  Nepalgunj, 
located less than five km from the Indian border, is also 
home to the Royal Nepal Army's Western Division.  End note.) 
This round will mark the negotiating debut of the new GON 
team appointed by Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa on June 
12.  Information Minister and GON negotiator Kamal Thapa told 
the press that he and Maoist negotiator Baburam Bhattarai had 
agreed on a date and venue for the third round after meeting 
together informally in Nepalgunj on August 12. 
 
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MAOISTS "IN A HURRY" TO HUDDLE? 
-------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) In an August 14 conversation with the Ambassador, GON 
negotiator Thapa offered more detail on his three-hour, 
one-on-one meeting with Bhattarai that resulted in the 
agreement to hold the August 17 round.  Thapa first commented 
that he was "not very optimistic" about the outcome of the 
talks, an assessment he upgraded later in the course of his 
remarks to "cautiously optimistic."  Thapa reported that 
Bhattarai had struck him as "very much in a hurry" to hold 
the third round and not much interested in discussing details 
of the agenda.  Bhattarai had indicated that the Maoists were 
facing significant pressure from a number of quarters, 
including civil society and the international 
community--particularly India--to agree to a third round.  He 
added that he had also agreed to Bhattarai's request to hold 
another session of talks in Dang District after the August 17 
round.  (Note:  Dang, a Maoist stronghold in southwestern 
Nepal, was the scene of the insurgents' first attack on the 
Royal Nepal Army, which ended the ceasefire in November 2001. 
 End note.)  Thapa said he had no idea why the Maoists 
requested Dang as a site, other than that they likely feel 
"more comfortable" in an area where they are particularly 
active in training, smuggling, etc. 
 
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SECURITY OF FOREIGN AID WORKERS, 
PROJECTS TO BE ON AGENDA 
--------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C)  Thapa told the Ambassador that he had raised Maoist 
threats against U.S.-sponsored development programs with 
Bhattarai during the August 12 meeeting, asking if the 
increasingly shrill anti-US rhetoric represents a change in 
insurgent policy or strategy.  Thapa reportedly urged the 
Maoists to halt the threatening statements, adding that the 
anti-US vitriol looked as if the Maoists were attempting to 
appease India.  Bhattarai denied that there had been a shift 
in strategy, saying instead that the campaign reflected 
"ground realities."  He rejected the suggestion that the 
insurgents might be using the anti-US rhetoric to appease 
India, pointing instead to Maoist concerns that the Indians 
were becoming "active" with Nepali political parties.  (Note: 
 This is more than a bit disingenuous on Bhattarai's part. 
The Indian Government's "active" engagement with Nepal's 
political parties, and especially with the Nepali Congress, 
is widely known and spans decades.  End note.) 
 
5.  (C)  The Ambassador asked Thapa to press the Maoists 
during the August 17 round to respect the safety and security 
of all foreign aid workers and projects.  Thapa undertook to 
do so. 
 
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THIS ROUND NOT TO FOLLOW PAST PATTERN 
-------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) The GON side will be prepared to address the Maoists' 
political agenda during the August 17 round, Thapa explained. 
 That said, he emphasized that the current team will break 
with the passive style adopted by GON negotiators in the two 
previous rounds held under the former interim government.  In 
those sessions, the GON side had permitted the Maoist 
proposals to form the whole framework of the talks without 
offering any counter-proposals or initiatives of its own, he 
said.  Instead of allowing Maoist demands to dictate the 
agenda and dominate the discussions, Thapa reported that his 
two-man team plans to present the Maoists with "a 
comprehensive package of political reforms," including 
possible Constitutional amendments, for discussion.  GON 
negotiators will make clear, however, that the government 
cannot and will not compromise on three core principles:  the 
constitutional monarchy; multi-party democracy; and the 
sovereignty of the people.  (Note:  These three points are 
among the "unalterable" elements of the Constitution which 
the Maoists insist that a constituent assembly must address. 
End note.) 
 
7.  (C)  The Ambassador asked if the GON negotiators had 
shared their draft political proposals with representatives 
of the mainstream democratic parties.  Thapa replied that he 
had briefed the leaders of the Communist Party of Nepal - 
United Marxist Leninist and the Nepal Sadbhavana Party on 
August 14, planned to speak with former Prime Minister and 
Nepali Congress (Democratic) Party leader Sher Bahadur Deuba 
later the same day, and a senior representative of the Nepali 
Congress Party on August 15.  He promised to send the Embassy 
a final copy of the draft proposals. 
 
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COMMENT 
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8.  (C) Finally setting a date for this long-delayed round of 
talks is reason enough for "cautious optimism."  The current 
team of GON negotiators clearly is approaching the upcoming 
round of talks with a better defined strategy and more 
proactive approach than its hapless predecessor.  It is not 
at all clear, however, that the Maoists are prepared to 
pursue negotiations in which they will be called upon to make 
some basic political concessions.  We therefore share Thapa's 
limited expectations for significant results.  If nothing 
else, the session can provide a valuable opportunity to 
impress once again upon the Maoists our concerns about the 
security of American citizens and interests, including 
US-funded development projects and their staff. 
 
 
 
MALINOWSKI