US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA2065

UNCLAS GUATEMALA 002065 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
FOR WHA/AS NORIEGA, WHA/DAS FISK AND WHA/CEN TRIVELLI FROM 
AMBASSADOR HAMILTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: AMGT, PREL, GT, WHA 
SUBJECT: EMBASSY GUATEMALA'S 90-DAY GOAL PLAN 
 
REF: STATE 230096 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: Embassy Guatemala's highest priority goals 
for the next 90 days include ensuring that the national 
elections (to be held on November 9) are free and fair; that 
Guatemala ratifies and places in force a bilateral 
counter-narcotics maritime agreement with the U.S.; and that 
Guatemala ratifies a status of forces agreement covering the 
New Horizons joint military exercise, setting a precedent for 
a future Article 98 Agreement. End summary. 
 
2. (SBU) Goal 1:  National elections are held on schedule, 
and are judged to be free and fair. 
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Guatemala will hold elections for President, Congress and 
local authorities on November 9.  The outcome of the 
elections, and the election process itself, will have a 
determining impact on the continued consolidation of 
democracy in Guatemala, following 36 years of internal 
conflict and an uneven history of democratic institution 
building.  Post is promoting this goal by public and private 
diplomacy to address the serious challenges that have arisen 
in this election; by providing technical support to the 
Supreme Electoral Tribunal to improve its capacity to hold a 
good election; by providing financial assistance to 
international (OAS) and national election observation 
missions; by funding NGO efforts to monitor potential 
manipulation of the election by GOG pork-barrel spending; and 
by an Ambassadorial message urging Guatemalans to not let 
rumors of potential fraud discourage them from voting. 
 
3. (SBU) Goal 2:  The Guatemalan Congress ratifies and the 
GOG places in force a bilateral counter-narcotics maritime 
agreement with us. 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
Guatemala and the United States signed a bilateral 
counter-narcotics maritime agreement on May 27.  The placing 
in force of this agreement will represent a major 
disincentive for narcotics traffickers to continue to use 
Guatemala's coasts as transit zones for cocaine bound for US 
markets, and could encourage other countries in the region to 
sign similar accords.  The resulting operation of US law 
enforcement vessels in Guatemalan waters will also serve 
colaterally as a disincentive for alien smuggling operations, 
which currently use Guatemala as an off-loading point for 
aliens (including special interest aliens) heading north.  We 
had sought such an agreement with the GOG for ten years.  In 
recent months we have negotiated the text of the agreement, 
signed it, and President Portillo sent it to Congress for 
ratification.  The Embassy is promoting this goal by pressing 
Congress to expedite consideration of this agreement; by 
lobbying all the major parties to vote for the agreement; and 
by pressing the Portillo Government to secure prompt 
legislative action followed by immediate implementation. 
 
4. (SBU) Goal 3:  Guatemala ratifies a SOFA for the 2004 New 
Horizons joint military exercise, which contains generic ICC 
protections. 
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Guatemala has not ratified a SOFA with us in more than two 
years, and ratification of the New Horizons agreement would 
not only provide essential protections needed for this 
specific exercise, it would also establish a precedent for a 
broader SOFA containing ICC protections.  The Embassy has 
negotiated a text of the New Horizons SOFA with the GOG, 
which includes generic language protecting US troops from 
extradition to an international court.  We view the 
ratification of the New Horizons SOFA as a stepping stone in 
the process of securing eventual approval of an Article 98 
Agreement.  Efforts to negotiate a separate Article 98 
Agreement, even using a generic text which does not mention 
the ICC, have not prospered.  We will continue pressing the 
Portillo government for an Article 98 Agreement, but 
realistically may have to wait for a more favorable opinion 
by the next government.  The New Horizons agreement has been 
forwarded by President Portillo to Congress for ratification. 
 The Embassy is promoting this goal by pressing the 
Congressional leadership to expedite consideration of the 
agreement; by lobbying all the major parties to secure their 
votes for this agreement; and by pressing the GOG to use its 
influence with Congress to expedite ratification. 
HAMILTON