US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA2052

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 002052 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/12/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PREL, PINR, PHUM, GT 
SUBJECT: NEW ELECTION POLL PUTS RIOS MONTT FIFTH, WITH 
THREE PERCENT; OTHER ELECTION NEWS 
 
Classified By: PolCouns David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (SBU) Election poll results released on August 12 show 
GANA presidential candidate Oscar Berger leading the pack 
with 44% (up from 37% in July); followed by UNE candidate 
Alvaro Colom with 17% (up from 13% in July) and FRG candidate 
Efrain Rios Montt with 3% (down from 8% in July in the same 
poll).  Responses to polling questions regarding the 
FRG-directed violent protests of July 24-25 indicate that 
many previously undecided voters blame the FRG leadership for 
the disturbances, and decided as a result to vote against the 
FRG.  While electoral polls in Guatemala are often inaccurate 
and, at a minimum, underestimate the rural vote (where the 
FRG has its strength), anecdotal evidence developed by the 
Embassy from informal surveys conducted recently in rural 
areas supports the conclusion that Berger remains 
significantly ahead in voter preferences, not only in the 
capital, but also in much of the countryside. 
 
2. (C) Independent presidential candidate Rodolfo Paiz 
withdrew from the presidential race during the first week of 
August, and called on his supporters to vote for Oscar 
Berger.  There are reports that DC candidate Ricardo Bueso 
will pull his hat out of the electoral ring by August 14. 
Paiz, a supermarket heir who headed a small political party, 
polled 1% in August, and Bueso failed to reach 2.5%, after 
spending millions of dollars of his own money in the 
campaign.  The withdrawal of both candidates will favor Oscar 
Berger as their support base was mostly anti-FRG. 
 
3. (C) The FRG held its congressional nominating assembly on 
August 9, and, to the surprise of many, gave four prominent 
slots on the national slate of legislative candidates to 
nephews and nieces of General Rios Montt.  The strategy of 
favoring family members over local party bosses or campaign 
contributors signals a change in the FRG's electoral strategy 
from one of winning votes to one of insuring that their 
legislative block, in the event of losing the presidential 
election, remains loyal.  The calculated decision to 
sacrifice electoral votes in exchange for holding the FRG 
bloc in Congress together after an electoral defeat suggests 
that the FRG believes their chances of winning the 
presidential election are not high. 
 
4. (U) The Supreme Court on August 11 accepted a new appeal 
against the candidacy of Rios Montt.  With Rios Montt now 
registered as a candidate and with the Constitutional Court 
having already ruled that no appeals can be accepted that 
contradict its July 14 ruling that Rios Montt can be a 
candidate, there is no reason to expect this latest challenge 
to succeed. 
HAMILTON