US embassy cable - 03COLOMBO1406

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001406 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA; NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958:    DECL:  08-12-13 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PINS, PINR, CE, Political Parties 
SUBJECT:  Linkup of president's party and radical JVP on 
hold; JVP mobilizes against GSL's north/east proposal 
 
Refs:  Colombo 1399, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Charge' 
d'Affaires. Reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
1.   (C) SUMMARY:  The proposed linkup between President 
Kumaratunga's party and the radical JVP, which once 
seemed all but sealed, is now on hold.  The president 
has apparently decided that now is not the right time 
for the alliance.  The JVP, with some good reviews under 
its belt for its activities in the south, is mobilizing 
against the GSL's recent north/east proposal.  With the 
government's major initiative -- the peace process -- 
retaining its popularity, the sense one gets is that the 
opposition parties are struggling a bit.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) PACT ON HOLD:  The proposed linkup between 
Sri Lanka's two major left-tilting opposition parties, 
President Kumaratunga's Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) 
and the radical Janantha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party, 
is on hold.  (Note:  The SLFP is the key constituent 
element of Kumaratunga's People's Alliance grouping.) 
The linkup had seemed to be all but sealed several 
months ago, as high-level SLFP and JVP officials held 
regular meetings focused on drafting a memorandum of 
understanding.  Indeed, Anura Bandaranaike, a senior 
SLFP MP and the president's brother, was proclaiming in 
public that a pact would be signed within days -- but 
nothing happened.  When queried about the apparent 
delay, members of the SLFP and JVP routinely insist that 
there have been no disagreements between the two parties 
and that they are still planning a linkup.  They add 
that it will take more time to ink the deal, however. 
 
3.  (C) PRESIDENTIAL RELUCTANCE?:  Just below the 
surface, however, are reports that the president has 
decided to move cautiously in regard to allying with the 
JVP.  Commenting on these reports, Taranjit Sandhu, 
Indian High Commission polchief, told us that he had 
heard that the president wanted to keep her options open 
at this time.  Sandhu remarked that Kumaratunga was 
probably reading the public's mood, which was largely 
pro-peace process.  (Note: Recent polling suggests that 
public support for the peace process is at its highest 
point since its advent in December 2001.)  Given the tea 
leaves, he added, Kumaratunga had seemingly wisely 
decided not to stick her neck out by aligning with the 
Sinhalese chauvinist, anti-peace track agenda of the JVP 
at this time.  That said, Sandhu did not discount the 
possibility that a linkup was still in the cards at some 
point if the government's peace efforts begin to sag. 
 
4.  (C) There are other reports that place the 
president's apparent decision to put a brake on the 
proposed pact in a more personal context.  For example: 
 
-- There are claims that the president's two children, 
daughter Yasodhara, 22, and son Vimukthi, 19, both spoke 
out against a pact with the JVP, asserting that the 
group had killed their father, Vijaya, during its failed 
1987-89 insurrection.  (Note:  Vijaya Kumaratunga was 
gunned down in 1988.  The JVP has been accused of 
perpetrating the crime, but has denied involvement. 
Yasodhara is studying medicine at Cambridge University. 
Vimukthi is studying veterinary science in London.)  The 
president's office later denied this account. 
 
-- There are also reports that the president may have 
had some sort of falling out with her brother, Anura, 
who has been a strong advocate of the pact with the JVP. 
The president and Anura have had a troubled, jealous 
relationship, for various reasons.  The president may be 
angry with Anura and, to punish him, decided to put his 
major "project," the linkup with the JVP, on ice. 
 
5.  (C) JVP MOBILIZATION:  Despite the disappointing 
news about the proposed pact, which the group seemed to 
be counting on to up the pressure on the GSL, the JVP 
remains active on the political front.  In recent days, 
the group has announced that it is mobilizing its cadre 
against the government's proposal to set up an interim 
administration in the north/east.  The JVP asserts that 
the proposal would provide the Tamil Tigers too much 
authority in the north/east and thus would effectively 
"divide" the nation.  As it has in the past, the group 
is also hitting out against the Norwegian peace 
facilitation effort, asserting that Norway is in effect 
trying to "colonize" Sri Lanka. 
 
6.  (C) Whether the JVP's program of rallies and marches 
will have an effect on the pro-peace process public mood 
is questionable, according to observers.  Jehan Perera, 
the head of the National Peace Council, a local think- 
tank, told polchief recently that the JVP has tried 
repeatedly to undermine the peace process via various 
"mobilizations" and gotten nowhere.  There is little 
reason, he noted, to think they could gain much traction 
now. 
 
7.  (C) SOME GOOD REVIEWS FOR THE JVP:  In the meantime, 
the JVP's public image has been benefiting from positive 
reviews of some of the group's recent activities in 
southern Sri Lanka.  First and foremost, the group has 
earned kudos from residents of several southern areas 
(Ratnapara, Kalutara, Matara) which were hit by severe 
flooding in May.  The JVP's assistance efforts -- which 
involved thousands of its cadre rushing to the scene, 
providing food aid and manpower to reinforce dikes -- 
were very well-received.  Second, the only JVP- 
controlled local council in the country, which is 
located in Tissamaharama, Hambantota District (in the 
deep south), has been praised in recent newspaper 
reports for its relative efficiency.  There are no 
reports of corruption among the JVP council members, for 
example.  In fact, the JVP members have worked to cut 
costs and trim their perks. 
 
8.  (C) COMMENT:  With the GSL's major initiative -- the 
peace process -- retaining its popularity, the sense one 
gets is that the opposition parties are struggling a 
bit.  The president and her party have criticized the 
peace track in a low-key way, while the JVP has done so 
in vociferous fashion, but neither have picked up much 
traction.  The opposition has also tried other angles 
(attacks on corruption, high prices, etc.), but has not 
drawn much blood.  The government is not invulnerable, 
and it has had its share of scandals, but it seems to be 
holding up (or is at least not taking on much water) at 
this point.  Given this situation, the president and the 
JVP, allied or not, are left with little choice but to 
continue their search for a theme, while hoping for a 
stumble by the government.  END COMMENT. 
 
9.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
ENTWISTLE