US embassy cable - 03OTTAWA2261

C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 002261 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2013 
TAGS: PREL, MARR, CA, NATO 
SUBJECT: NATO SYG RACE: SPECULATION ABOUT CANADIAN DEPUTY 
PM MANLEY 
 
REF: USNATO 832 
 
Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Brian Flora, 
Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: While NATO has never before had a 
non-European Secretary General, the name of Canadian Deputy 
Prime Minister John Manley has now surfaced as a possible 
candidate.  While we do not have a sense for what Manley's 
prospects are in Brussels, we expect that he would jump at 
the chance to serve in this prestigious position.  The GoC 
will be seeking U.S. and European views on a Manley 
candidacy, and Manley may want to discuss the NATO SYG 
position during an upcoming visit to Washington (date tbd). 
END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (U) The Canadian press reported on August 8 that Deputy PM 
Manley is being considered as a potential successor to Lord 
Robertson as NATO Secretary General.  Manley, who is on 
vacation, has not yet made any public statement concerning a 
potential candidacy.  Manley's spokesman said that the Deputy 
PM "is not campaigning for this.  He's not a candidate.  This 
idea did not come from us.  It's coming out of Brussels and 
we're not going to speculate on it any further." 
 
3. (C) Manley, who dropped out of the Liberal Party 
leadership race on July 22, in fact told the Ambassador on 
July 28 that he was exploring the possibility of becoming 
NATO SYG.  The timing would work well for Manley, as Paul 
Martin (the prohibitive favorite to replace PM Chretien) is 
expected to form a new Cabinet when he becomes Prime Minister 
sometime in the December 2003 - February 2004 timeframe. 
Manley has expressed interest in serving in a Martin 
Government, but Martin's plans are unclear and Manley 
certainly would not have the vast portfolio he has held over 
the past year under Chretien.  In addition to being Deputy 
Prime Minister, Manley is Finance Minister, Political 
Minister for Ontario, and oversees the sensitive U.S./Canada 
border file. 
 
4. (C) Manley did a solid job overall during two years 
(2000-2002) as Foreign Minister, and shifted Canada's foreign 
policy away from Lloyd Axworthy's "human security" agenda and 
toward stronger partnership with the U.S.  During his 
leadership candidacy, Manley called for reforming and 
bolstering the United Nations.  He is steeped in the Liberal 
Party's multilateral tradition, but he has publicly rejected 
the anti-American attitudes of some Liberals, including in 
the aftermath of the Iraq War.  According to unconfirmed 
press reports, Manley was one of the Cabinet members who 
supported Canadian participation in the war but were 
overruled by Chretien. 
 
5. (C) Manley has worked closely with Homeland Security 
Secretary Ridge to make the U.S./Canada border more secure 
 
SIPDIS 
and more efficient in the wake of September 11.  On the 
defense front, Manley has admitted that Canada is not pulling 
its weight, and in his only budget as Finance Minister he 
approved a significant increase in military spending.  Manley 
has called for Canadian participation in North American 
missile defense, and negotiations over a U.S.-Canada 
cooperation agreement are ongoing. 
 
6. (C) Manley has not weighed in personally on some of the 
key issues confronting NATO, but the GoC shares our 
commitment to NATO remaining the pre-eminent security 
organization in Europe and has the same concerns as we do 
about competing EU efforts (reftel).  Canada supports NATO 
transformation, including creation of a NATO Response Force, 
and is open to NATO taking on out-of-area missions (as in 
Afghanistan, where NATO leadership is facilitating Canada's 
large contribution to ISAF). 
KELLY