US embassy cable - 95TELAVIV17504

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 017504 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SECRETARY, NEA AND SMEC 
WHITE HOUSE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR AND PARRIS 
DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS NATO COLLECTIVE, IMMEDIATE 
 
E.O.  12958:  DECL: 11/05/05 
TAGS:  PREL, PGOV, IS 
SUBJECT:  RABIN ASSASSINATION:  NEXT STEPS IN ISRAEL'S POLITICAL 
          SUCCESSION 
 
1.  CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.  CLASSIFIED BY SECTION 1.5 (B) 
AND (D).  NIACT PRECEDENCE BECAUSE OF GOVERNMENT CRISIS IN 
ISRAEL. 
 
2.  SUMMARY:  ACTING PRIME MINISTER SHIMON PERES WILL NEED TO 
CONSIDER THREE POSSIBLE OPTIONS FOLLOWING THE NOVEMBER 5 FUNERAL 
FOR ASSASSINATED PRIME MINISTER YITZHAK RABIN.  PERES COULD ASK 
PRESIDENT WEIZMAN TO RECOGNIZE THE EXISTING RULING COALITION; 
FORM A NEW RULING COALITION; OR DISSOLVE THE KNESSET AND CALL 
EARLY ELECTIONS.  NEW ELECTIONS WOULD TAKE PLACE 90 DAYS AFTER 
THE 13TH KNESSET IS DISSOLVED.  POLITICAL AND PEACE PROCESS 
FACTORS WILL OBVIOUSLY INFLUENCE ANY DECISION CONCERNING IF AND 
WHEN NEW ELECTIONS ARE HELD.  OPPOSITION LEADER BINYAMIN 
NETANYAHU TOLD US LAST NIGHT THAT LIKUD AND THE RIGHT WILL BE 
DIRECTLY BLAMED FOR THE VIOLENCE LEADING TO THE ASSASSINATION OF 
RABIN.  HE CALLED THE DEATH OF RABIN "A DISASTER FOR THE JEWISH 
PEOPLE, A DISASTER FOR ISRAEL AND A DISASTER FOR THE RIGHT WHICH 
WILL BE DECIMATED IF ELECTIONS ARE CALLED SOON." 
END SUMMARY. 
 
3.  THE NOVEMBER 4 ASSASSINATION OF PRIME MINISTER YITZHAK RABIN 
HAS NO PRECEDENT IN ISRAEL'S FORTY-SEVEN YEAR HISTORY.  LACKING A 
CONSTITUTION, ISRAEL'S BASIC LAW PROVIDES THAT A TEMPORARY ACTING 
PRIME MINISTER BE NAMED BY THE ISRAELI CABINET.  IN EMERGENCY 
SESSION LAST NIGHT, THE CABINET NAMED FOREIGN MINISTER SHIMON 
PERES ACTING PRIME MINISTER, A DECISION TAKEN WITH THE 
CONCURRENCE OF PRESIDENT EZER WEIZMAN. 
 
4. FOLLOWING A SEVEN-DAY MOURNING PERIOD (WHICH WILL RUN FROM THE 
DAY OF BURIAL NOVEMBER 6 TO SUNDAY MORNING NOVEMBER 12), THE 
ACTING PRIME MINISTER HAS THREE BASIC OPTIONS WITH RESPECT TO 
SUCCESSION: 1) CONTINUE WITH THE EXISTING RULING COALITION WITH 
THE APPROVAL OF THE PRESIDENT, 2) FORM A NEW COALITION WITH THE 
APPROVAL OF THE PRESIDENT, OR 3) CALL FOR NEW ELECTIONS. 
 
5.  WE EXPECT ACTING PRIME MINISTER PERES TO CONSIDER HIS OPTIONS 
AFTER THE NOVEMBER 6 FUNERAL FOR RABIN.  WE HAVE HEARD 
PRELIMINARY REACTIONS FROM CABINET MEMBERS AND LABOR PARTY 
LEADERS THAT PERES MAY WANT TO CALL FOR EARLY ELECTIONS.  ALREADY 
THE LABOR PARTY HAS NAMED NAVA ARAD, A MEMBER OF THE 12TH KNESSET 
AND AN ADVISOR TO THE PRIME MINISTER ON WOMEN'S RIGHTS, TO 
REPLACE RABIN'S POSITION ON THE LABOR LIST AND RETAIN A PLURALITY 
OF 44 SEATS IN THE KNESSET AND A WORKING MAJORITY OF 63.  WE HAVE 
LEARNED FROM THE PRIME MINISTER'S MILITARY ADVISOR, GENERAL DANNY 
YATOM, THAT THE ACTING PRIME MINISTER WILL TAKE OVER THE DEFENSE 
PORTFOLIO, SINCE PERES IS BARRED FROM NAMING NEW MINISTERS UNTIL 
HE BECOMES PRIME MINISTER.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IN THE NEAR 
FUTURE EHUD BARAK, INTERIOR MINISTER AND FORMER CHIEF OF STAFF, 
COULD BE NAMED DEFENSE MINISTER, A MOVE THAT MOST OF THE ISRAELI 
PRESS HAS DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S PAPERS.  BARAK IS CURRENTLY RACING 
BACK TO ISRAEL FROM A U.S. VISIT TO ATTEND THE FUNERAL OF RABIN 
TOMORROW. 
 
6.  IF PERES DECIDES TO CALL FOR NEW ELECTIONS, HE WOULD HAVE TO 
DISSOLVE THE CURRENT 13TH SESSION OF THE KNESSET AND BEGIN A 90- 
DAY ELECTION PERIOD DURING WHICH A CAMPAIGN WOULD BE CONDUCTED. 
THE NEW ELECTION LAW PERMITTING THE DIRECT ELECTION OF THE PRIME 
MINISTER AND SEPARATE ELECTION OF KNESSET FACTIONS WILL TAKE 
EFFECT.  SEVERAL TECHNICAL ISSUES STILL REMAIN UNRESOLVED AND 
WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BEFORE AN ELECTION COULD BE HELD.  FOR 
EXAMPLE, THE ISSUE OF A NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE NEEDS TO BE RESOLVED, 
SINCE LABOR AND LIKUD HAVE ALREADY AGREED THAT A SIMPLE KNESSET 
MAJORITY WOULD BE INADEQUATE TO REMOVE A DIRECTLY-ELECTED PRIME 
MINISTER. 
 
7.  POLITICAL AND PEACE PROCESS FACTORS NO DOUBT WILL GREATLY 
INFLUENCE A DECISION BY ACTING PRIME MINISTER PERES ON WHETHER 
AND WHEN TO CALL FOR NEW ELECTIONS.  SINCE OSLO II IS A 
COMMITMENT OF THE GOVERNMENT OF ISRAEL, LABOR AND LIKUD SOURCES 
TOLD US THAT REDEPLOYMENT WOULD CONTINUE DURING AN ELECTION 
PERIOD.  LIKUD LEADER BINYAMIN NETANYAHU TOLD POLOFF LAST NIGHT 
THAT THE ASSASSINATION OF RABIN IS A "DISASTER FOR THE JEWISH 
PEOPLE, A DISASTER OF ISRAEL AND A DISASTER FOR THE RIGHT WHICH 
WILL BE DECIMATED IF ELECTIONS ARE CALLED SOON."  OTHER LIKUD 
SOURCES REFERRED IN A PANIC TO THE 1930'S MURDER OF HAIM 
ARLOSOROFF FOR WHICH THE ENTIRE REVISIONIST MOVEMENT WAS BLAMED 
AND FEARED THE LEFT WILL DO THE SAME AGAIN WITH LIKUD AND THE 
RIGHT IN 1995. 
 
INDYK 
 
 
NOTE: NOT PASSED TO ABOVE ADDRESSEE(S)