US embassy cable - 92ZAGREB2522

CGYOOL: PRES TUDJMAN TELLS SENATOR MOYNIHAN - IT'S TIME FOR AIR STRIKES AGAINST THE - SERBS; CAUTIONS AGAINST LIFTING ARMS EMBARGO

Identifier: 92ZAGREB2522
Wikileaks: View 92ZAGREB2522 at Wikileaks.org
Origin: Embassy Zagreb
Created: 1992-11-30 09:18:00
Classification: CONFIDENTIAL
Tags: PREL MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR BK War Crimes
Redacted: This cable was not redacted by Wikileaks.
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.


                       CONFIDENTIAL


                       CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02        ZAGREB  02522  01 OF 04  300914Z
USMISSION USVIENNA
USIA WASHDC 2491
 COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5//
USEC BRUSSELS
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1106
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ZAGREB 02522 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
GENEVA FOR USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH; USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE 
 
E.O. 12356:  OADR 
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, PREF, HR, MOPS, PREF, HR, MOPS, PREF, HR, MOPS, PREF, HR, BK, War Crimes 
SUBJECT:  CGYOOL:  PRES TUDJMAN TELLS SENATOR MOYNIHAN 
-         IT'S TIME FOR AIR STRIKES AGAINST THE 
-         SERBS; CAUTIONS AGAINST LIFTING ARMS EMBARGO 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  IN A LATE EVENING MEETING NOV 27, SENATOR MOYNIHAN 
SHARED WITH PRESIDENT TUDJMAN HIS IMPRESSIONS AFTER 
HAVING PERSONALLY VIEWED THE DEVASTATION IN SARAJEVO, 
MOSTAR, AND THE DUBROVNIK AREA.  THE SENATOR SAID HE 
HAD BEEN TOLD BY UNHCR IN SARAJEVO THAT THE CITY IS 
DOWN TO ONLY ONE DAY'S FOOD SUPPLY. 
 
2.  TUDJMAN SAID SERBIAN EXTREMISTS HAVE CLEARLY 
OPTED FOR WAR; SANCTIONS WOULD NOT STOP THEM.  THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        ZAGREB  02522  01 OF 04  300914Z 
SERBS WERE COUNTING ON CONTINUED WESTERN DISUNITY 
OVER EX-YUGO AND ON RUSSIAN SUPPORT; SEVERAL HUNDRED 
RUSSIAN "VOLUNTEERS" ARE NOW FIGHTING ON THE SERBIAN 
SIDE.  HE CALLED FOR SELECTIVE AIR STRIKES ON SERBIAN 
MILITARY BASES AND FACTORIES AND NOTED SERB CLAIMS TO 
BE ON THE VERGE OF BUILDING "GUIDED MISSILES." 
TUDJMAN SAID THAT LIFTING THE ARMS EMBARGO WOULD ONLY 
ENSURE THAT THE CARNAGE SPREAD AND LASTED ANOTHER 1-2 
YEARS; IT WOULD NOT OVERCOME THE SERBS' MILITARY 
SUPERIORITY.  ON CROATIA'S WAR-RELATED ECONOMIC 
DISPLACEMENT AND REFUGEE BURDEN, TUDJMAN COMMENTED, 
"IT'S A MIRACLE WE HAVE SURVIVED  ALL OF THIS." 
 
END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------- 
"YOU ASKED FOR IT|" 
------------------- 
 
3.  SENATOR MOYNIHAN TOLD THE PRESIDENT HOW DEEPLY 
TOUCHED HE WAS BY THE AMOUNT OF DESTRUCTION HE HAD 
WITNESSED IN CROATIA AND BOSNIA-HERCEGOVINA (B-H). 
HE NOTED THAT DUBROVNIK APPEARED BATTERED, ALBEIT 
REPAIRABLE.   ON THE OTHER HAND, THE TOWN OF SLANO, 
JUST NORTH OF DUBROVNIK, HAD BEEN UTTERLY DESTROYED. 
THE ATTACKERS WHO HAD OCCUPIED AND WRECKED THE TOWN 
LEFT GRAFFITI ON THE WALLS, IN ENGLISH AND SERBO- 
CROATIAN, STATING "YOU ASKED FOR IT|"  LIKEWISE, 
MOSTAR WAS A DEVASTATED CITY.  SERBIAN TACTICS WERE 
EVIDENTLY TO SHELL CITIES FROM AFAR, KILL OR STARVE 
THE POPULACE, AND ONLY THEN MOVE IN FOR THE CAPTURE. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        ZAGREB  02522  01 OF 04  300914Z 
 
4.  THE SENATOR SAID IT HAD SURPRISED HIM TO LEARN 
THAT SOME 12 YUGOSLAV WARSHIPS HAD STOOD OFF 
DUBROVNIK AND BOMBARDED THE CITY.  ONE COULD 
UNDERSTAND, THE SENATOR SAID, SOME UNRULY ELEMENTS 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNNN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 01        ZAGREB  02522  02 OF 04  301209Z 
ACTION EUR-01 
 
INFO  LOG-00   AID-01   CA-02    CIAE-00  PFIP-01  C-01     DODE-00 
      CISA-02  DS-00    HA-09    H-01     INRE-00  INR-01   IO-19 
      L-03     ADS-00   MFLO-03  M-01     NSAE-00  OCS-06   OIC-02 
      OMB-01   PA-01    PC-01    PM-02    PRS-01   P-01     RP-10 
      SCT-03   SDEL-00  SNP-00   SP-00    SR-00    SSO-00   SS-00 
      TRSE-00  T-01     ASDS-01  FMP-00     /075W 
                  ------------------7FFAAA  301210Z /38 
P 300918Z NOV 92 ZDK 
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2852 
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY ANKARA 
AMEMBASSY ATHENS 
AMEMBASSY BONN 
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST 
USMISSION GENEVA 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY MADRID 
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY ROME 
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 
AMEMBASSY VIENNA 
USMISSION USNATO 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        ZAGREB  02522  02 OF 04  301209Z 
USMISSION USVIENNA 
USIA WASHDC 2492 
 COMSIXTHFLT//N2// 
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// 
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5// 
USEC BRUSSELS 
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1107 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 ZAGREB 02522 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
GENEVA FOR USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH; USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE 
 
E.O. 12356:  OADR 
TAGS:  PREL, MOPS, PREF, HR, BK 
SUBJECT:  CGYOOL:  PRES TUDJMAN TELLS SENATOR MOYNIHAN 
-         IT'S TIME FOR AIR STRIKES AGAINST THE 
-         SERBS; CAUTIONS AGAINST LIFTING ARMS EMBARGO 
 
WITH MORTARS TAKING RANDOM SHOTS AT A CITY, BUT THE 
ORGANIZATION OF A FLOTILLA TO BOMBARD A CITY WAS AN 
ACT FOR WHICH ONLY SENIOR OFFICERS COULD BE 
RESPONSIBLE. 
 
5.  TUDJMAN SAID HE TOO HAD TOURED THE COASTAL AREA 
AND HAD SEEN FIRSTHAND THE SCALE OF DESTRUCTION.  HE 
POINTED OUT THAT THE DEVASTATION WAS FAR GREATER 
SOUTH OF DUBROVNIK, IN THE DIRECTION OF MONTENEGRO. 
HE HAD LIVED THROUGH A WORLD WAR, BUT THE BARBARITY 
OF ACTION IN THIS CONFLICT WAS UNPRECEDENTED. 
 
-------------------- 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        ZAGREB  02522  02 OF 04  301209Z 
SARAJEVO IMPRESSIONS 
-------------------- 
 
6.  SENATOR MOYNIHAN TOLD THE PRESIDENT THAT HE HAD 
OVERNIGHTED IN SARAJEVO NOV 24, TOURED THE CITY, MET 
WITH PRESIDENT IZETBEGOVIC, AND BEEN BRIEFED BY UNHCR 
ON THE PRECARIOUS FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION.  HE HAD BEEN 
TOLD BY UNHCR THAT SARAJEVO WAS DOWN TO ONLY ONE 
DAY'S FOOD SUPPLY; INCOMING FOOD ON CONVOYS AND 
RELIEF FLIGHTS IS DISTRIBUTED AND CONSUMED.  TUDJMAN 
SAID IZETBEGOVIC HAD PROBABLY INFORMED THE SENATOR 
THAT SOME 128,000 BOSNIANS HAD BEEN KILLED AND 30,000 
GIRLS AND WOMEN RAPED BY SERBIAN FORCES IN B-H.  THESE 
FIGURES MIGHT, OF COURSE, BE EXAGGERATED, BUT EVEN IF 
THE REAL FIGURES WERE ONLY HALF, THE NUMBERS WERE 
STILL OUTRAGEOUS. 
 
---------------------------- 
ON THE WAR CRIMES COMMISSION 
---------------------------- 
 
7.  NOTING THAT THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL HAD 
ESTABLISHED A WAR CRIMES COMMISSION, THE SENATOR 
ASKED THE PRESIDENT WHAT STEPS THAT THE U.S. AND THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SHOULD TAKE NEXT.  TUDJMAN 
SAID BLUNTLY THAT SANCTIONS ALONE WILL NOT STOP 
SERBIAN AGGRESSION.  SERBIAN POLITICS HAS BECOME 
IRRATIONAL.  SERBIAN EXTREMISTS FEEL THAT THEY HAVE A 
BETTER CHANCE TO CREATE A "GREATER SERBIA" BY WAR 
THAN BY OTHER MEANS.  THEY CITE THE EXAMPLE OF HOW 
SERBIAN-DOMINATED "YUGOSLAVIA" WAS CREATED IN THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        ZAGREB  02522  02 OF 04  301209Z 
AFTERMATH OF WORLD WAR I AND HOW ANOTHER SERBIAN- 
DOMINATED SOCIALIST FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF YUGOSLAVIA 
HAD BEEN CREATED AFTER WORLD WAR II.  THESE EXTREMISTS 
ARE COUNTING ON THE WAR'S PERPETUATING A POLITICAL 
RIFT AMONG EUROPEAN STATES.  THIS POLICY DIVISION AND 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNNN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 01        ZAGREB  02522  03 OF 04  300917Z 
ACTION EUR-01 
 
INFO  LOG-00   AID-01   CA-02    CIAE-00  PFIP-01  C-01     DODE-00 
      CISA-02  DS-00    HA-09    H-01     INRE-00  INR-01   IO-19 
      L-03     ADS-00   MFLO-03  M-01     NSAE-00  OCS-06   OIC-02 
      OMB-01   PA-01    PC-01    PM-02    PRS-01   P-01     RP-10 
      SCT-03   SDEL-00  SNP-00   SP-00    SR-00    SSO-00   SS-00 
      TRSE-00  T-01     ASDS-01  FMP-00     /075W 
                  ------------------7FE9A4  300917Z /38 
P 300918Z NOV 92 
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2853 
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY ANKARA 
AMEMBASSY ATHENS 
AMEMBASSY BONN 
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST 
USMISSION GENEVA 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY MADRID 
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY ROME 
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 
AMEMBASSY VIENNA 
USMISSION USNATO 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        ZAGREB  02522  03 OF 04  300917Z 
USMISSION USVIENNA 
USIA WASHDC 2493 
 COMSIXTHFLT//N2// 
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// 
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5// 
USEC BRUSSELS 
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1108 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 ZAGREB 02522 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
GENEVA FOR USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH; USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE 
 
E.O. 12356:  OADR 
TAGS:  PREL, MOPS, PREF, HR, BK 
SUBJECT:  CGYOOL:  PRES TUDJMAN TELLS SENATOR MOYNIHAN 
-         IT'S TIME FOR AIR STRIKES AGAINST THE 
-         SERBS; CAUTIONS AGAINST LIFTING ARMS EMBARGO 
 
LACK OF RESOLVE, COUPLED WITH SUPPORT FROM ORTHODOX- 
LEANING RUSSIA, WOULD HELP THEM.  THERE ARE CREDIBLE 
REPORTS THAT SEVERAL HUNDRED RUSSIAN "VOLUNTEERS" ARE 
NOW FIGHTING ON THE SERBIAN SIDE IN B-H. 
 
8.  TUDJMAN CALLED FOR THE WEST TO EMPLOY SELECTIVE 
AIR STRIKES.  WESTERN GROUND FORCES ARE NOT NEEDED. 
THE AIR POWER SHOULD BE DIRECTED AGAINST SERBIAN AIR 
BASES, MILITARY FACTORIES, ARTILLERY EMPLACEMENTS, 
AND OTHER MILITARY SITES.  THE SERBS ARE NOW OPENLY 
BOASTING ABOUT THEIR MILITARY MIGHT AND THEIR INTENT 
TO BEGIN BUILDING "GUIDED MISSILES."  SELECTIVE AIR 
STRIKES COULD HELP GALVANIZE OPPOSITION TO MILOSEVIC 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        ZAGREB  02522  03 OF 04  300917Z 
INSIDE SERBIA, WHERE THERE IS EVIDENT RESISTANCE TO 
HIS POLICIES.  SOME 100,000 YOUNG MEN ARE REPORTED TO 
HAVE EVADED THE SERBIAN DRAFT CALL BECAUSE THEY 
OPPOSE THE WAR AND MILOSEVIC'S POLICIES. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
TUDJMAN:  LIFTING ARMS EMBARGO WILL PROLONG B-H WAR 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
9.  GENERAL MORILLON, THE UNPROFOR COMMANDER IN 
SARAJEVO, HAD TOLD SENATOR MOYNIHAN THAT HE WAS 
STRONGLY OPPOSED TO LIFTING OF THE ARMS EMBARGO. 
ASKED FOR HIS VIEW, TUDJMAN SAID THAT LIFTING THE 
ARMS EMBARGO WOULD MERELY ENSURE THAT THE DEATH AND 
DEVASTATION SPREAD AND CONTINUED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 
YEAR OR TWO.  THE SERBS ALREADY HAVE SUCH AN 
ADVANTAGE IN COMBAT AIRCRAFT, TANKS, AND ARTILLERY 
THAT THEIR MILITARY SUPERIORITY WOULD NOT BE 
CHALLENGED ANYTIME SOON, EVEN IF ARMS STARTED TO FLOW 
TO THEIR OPPONENTS IMMEDIATELY. 
 
10.  TUDJMAN SAID THE SOLUTION TO THE B-H CRISIS IS 
TO STOP SERBIAN AGGRESSION AND AIR STRIKES OUGHT TO 
BE USED TO THAT END.  HE SPECULATED THAT B-H MIGHT 
HAVE TO BECOME A UN "PROTECTORATE" TO BE SAVED.  HE 
SAID IT HAD BEEN A MISTAKE FOR THE EC COUNTRIES AND 
ESPECIALLY THE UNITED STATES TO MAKE SO REPETITIVELY 
CLEAR AT THE OUTSET OF THE CRISIS THAT THEY WOULD NOT 
INTERVENE MILITARILY.  THE SERBS HAD SEEN IN THIS 
STANCE A VIRTUAL GREEN LIGHT FOR MILITARY ACTION 
WITHOUT FEAR OF RETALIATION. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        ZAGREB  02522  03 OF 04  300917Z 
- 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
SERBIAN GOAL WAS TO RE-ESTABLISH COMMUNIST SYSTEM 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNNN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 01        ZAGREB  02522  04 OF 04  300918Z 
ACTION EUR-01 
 
INFO  LOG-00   AID-01   CA-02    CIAE-00  PFIP-01  C-01     DODE-00 
      CISA-02  DS-00    HA-09    H-01     INRE-00  INR-01   IO-19 
      L-03     ADS-00   MFLO-03  M-01     NSAE-00  OCS-06   OIC-02 
      OMB-01   PA-01    PC-01    PM-02    PRS-01   P-01     RP-10 
      SCT-03   SDEL-00  SNP-00   SP-00    SR-00    SSO-00   SS-00 
      TRSE-00  T-01     ASDS-01  FMP-00     /075W 
                  ------------------7FE9BC  300918Z /38 
P 300918Z NOV 92 
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2854 
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY ANKARA 
AMEMBASSY ATHENS 
AMEMBASSY BONN 
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST 
USMISSION GENEVA 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY MADRID 
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY ROME 
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 
AMEMBASSY VIENNA 
USMISSION USNATO 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        ZAGREB  02522  04 OF 04  300918Z 
USMISSION USVIENNA 
USIA WASHDC 2494 
 COMSIXTHFLT//N2// 
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// 
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5// 
USEC BRUSSELS 
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1109 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 ZAGREB 02522 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
GENEVA FOR USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH; USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE 
 
E.O. 12356:  OADR 
TAGS:  PREL, MOPS, PREF, HR, BK 
SUBJECT:  CGYOOL:  PRES TUDJMAN TELLS SENATOR MOYNIHAN 
-         IT'S TIME FOR AIR STRIKES AGAINST THE 
-         SERBS; CAUTIONS AGAINST LIFTING ARMS EMBARGO 
 
 
11.  JNA/SERBIAN MILITARY AGGRESSION AGAINST CROATIA 
LAST YEAR HAD AS ONE OF ITS GOALS THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT 
OF THE FORMER COMMUNIST SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORMER 
YUGOSLAVIA.  A SECONDARY GOAL WAS SERBIAN CONQUEST OF 
PARTS OF CROATIAN TERRITORY.  SERBIAN MILITARY 
STRATEGISTS HAD COUNTED ON SUPPORT FROM SOVIET 
MILITARY OFFICERS, INCLUDING MANY OF THOSE WHO 
PLOTTED AGAINST GORBACHEV. 
 
12.  AT THE START OF THE YUGO-CRISIS, CROATIA'S GOAL 
WAS CONFEDERATION.  TITO HIMSELF HAD FORESEEN THE 
PROBLEMS TO WHICH THE COUNTRY MIGHT OTHERWISE FALL 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        ZAGREB  02522  04 OF 04  300918Z 
PREY IN DESIGNING THE 1974 CONSTITUTION. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
REFUGEES & ECONOMY ARE MAJOR BURDENS FOR CROATIA 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
13.  TUDJMAN COMMENTED THAT SOME 700-800,000 
DISPLACED PERSONS FROM CROATIA AND REFUGEES FROM B-H 
ARE PRESENTLY IN CROATIA.  THEIR CARE AND FEEDING IS 
A MAJOR EXPENSE (NOTE:  20 PERCENT OF THE NATIONAL 
BUDGET NOW GOES FOR DIRECT CARE AND FEEDING OF THE 
REFUGEES AND DISPLACED.)  THIS BURDEN COMPOUNDED THE 
IMPORTANT LOSS OF THE FORMER YUGOSLAV MARKET AND THE 
WIDESPREAD ECONOMIC DEVASTATION CROATIA HAD SUFFERED 
IN THE WAR.  "IT'S A MIRACLE THAT WE HAVE SURVIVED 
ALL OF THIS," TUDJMAN SAID.  HE SAID THAT SUPPORT 
FROM THE CROATIAN DIASPORA HAD BEEN CRITICAL IN THE 
COUNTRY'S SURVIVAL. 
 
14.  TUDJMAN SAID CROATIA IS COUNTING ON U.S. SUPPORT 
FOR EARLY ADMISSION TO SUCH LFI'S AS THE IMF AND 
WORLD BANK.  THE SENATOR ADDED THAT HE WOULD PUT IN A 
GOOD WORD FOR THE COUNTRY WITH SENIOR IBRD LEADERSHIP 
AND WISHED TUDJMAN AND CROATIA EVERY SUCCESS IN 
OVERCOMING ITS ECONOMIC PROBLEMS. 
 
15.  THIS CABLE WAS PREPARED AFTER THE CODEL'S 
DEPARTURE FROM ZAGREB. 
 
NEITZKE 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        ZAGREB  02522  04 OF 04  300918Z 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNNN 

Latest source of this page is cablebrowser-2, released 2011-10-04