US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN136

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000136 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, INR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, AM 
SUBJECT: NEW "PRO-WESTERN" OPPOSITION BLOC A POTENTIAL 
PLAYER? 
 
Classified By: DCM A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (SBU) Armenian political elites continue to speculate on 
the implications of the recently announced union of 
opposition figures Aram Sargsyan, Raffi Hovannisian, and 
Hovhannes Hovhannisian.  The new alliance, painting itself as 
"the most western-leaning" in Armenia, has stated that its 
principle goal will be to "oust" Kocharian from power and 
offer an alternative foreign policy structure that moves the 
country away from its "Russia-centered" foreign policy. 
Opposition Justice Bloc leader Stepan Demirchian criticized 
the initiative, stating that smaller units within the Justice 
Bloc would only weaken the opposition's strength and could 
lead to potential fissures.  While at present more of a 
threat to the opposition than to the Kocharian 
administration, the news of the new political formation 
indicates that there is some movement within Armenia's 
opposition.  Even if the opposition survives this latest 
internal power shift, it is still unlikely that they will 
pose a serious threat to Kocharian in the near future.  End 
Summary. 
 
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THREE (SOMEWHAT) BIG FISH JOIN FORCES 
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2. (SBU) Opposition figures Aram Sargsyan, Raffi Hovannisian, 
and Hovhannes Hovhannisian have confirmed, via press 
statements and public interviews, their intentions to 
formally establish a "western-leaning" opposition alliance 
within the next few months.  Two of the stated of goals of 
the alliance include ousting Kocharian and creating an 
alternative "pro-Europe and pro-NATO" political movement to 
counter Armenia's current foreign policy framework that the 
group considers excessively beholden to Russian influence. 
The most radical opposition group, the Republic party (led by 
former Prime Minister Aram Sargsyan), has spearheaded the 
talks with two smaller opposition groups led by former 
Foreign Minister Raffi Hovannisian and former MP Hovhannes 
Hovhannisian.  While all were particularly active during the 
presidential and parliamentary elections of 2003, the 
Republic Party has maintained the highest profile during 
opposition activities of the past year.  The Republic Party 
was noticeably absent from a January 21 opposition leadership 
"summit," fueling speculation that the Justice Bloc's 
decision-making structure.  News of their union is the most 
substantial headline to come out of the opposition camp in 
the last few months. 
 
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DEMIRCHIAN SEES SUB-BLOC AS POTENTIAL THREAT 
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3. (C) Opposition Justice bloc leader Stepan Demirchian has 
criticized his opposition colleagues on their announced 
intentions to join forces.  (Comment:  We agree with 
observers from other diplomatic missions who believe that 
Demirchian, who reportedly engaged in initial discussions 
about the new bloc, fears he will lose his status as 
Armenia's leading opposition politician once the three 
re-emerge as a united front.  End Comment.)  Sargsyan, in his 
turn, has stepped-up his criticism of Demirchian's handling 
of the spring 2004 opposition rallies.  The dialogue on 
between Demirchian and the new political alliance's leaders 
has stopped short, however, of threatening to pull-out of the 
Justice Bloc or of expelling the new political formation's 
leaders once they solidify their alliance. 
 
4. (C) Meanwhile, the Justice Bloc surprised critics by 
announcing a meeting with Parliamentary Speaker Arthur 
Baghdasaryan to discuss a compromise agreement on 
constitutional amendments.  According to the announcement, 
the opposition's proposed draft constitution would give the 
National Assembly authority to approve candidates for Prime 
Minister, limit the Prime Minister's controversial authority 
to appoint and sack judges and would make the mayor of 
Yerevan an elected official.  Speaker Baghdasaryan told the 
opposition he would discuss the offer with fellow majority 
leaders within ten days.  We believe it is still too early to 
determine how deep support within the opposition runs for 
this initiative or whether it was merely an attempt by 
Demirchian to get the opposition back into the headlines. 
Either way, we view it is the most substantive proposal to 
come from Demirchian's office since the April 2004 political 
rallies and a welcome injection of real discourse about 
government reform. 
 
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BRINGING ANM BACK INTO THE FOLD 
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5. (C) Sargsyan is reportedly negotiating with high-level 
leaders of the former ruling Armenian National Movement (ANM) 
party of ex-President Levon Ter-Petrossian to solicit their 
support for the alliance.  All three leaders have close ties 
to ANM politics although they have downplayed formal mention 
of the party in public.  Rumors of ANM's possible engagement 
were authenticated recently when Sargsyan's chief aide, 
Albert Bazeyan, announced his resignation from the Republic 
Party in protest over ANM's possible role in the new 
alliance.  Davit Shahnazarian, National Security Advisor 
under Ter-Petrossian and prominent figure among a portion of 
former ANM party members, downplayed the rumored engagement 
of ANM.  He told us in private that the ANM would not join 
the new political alliance and predicted it would fizzle for 
"lack of a genuine leader." 
 
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COMMENT 
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6. (C) The new alliance, if properly managed, could be the 
most viable forum for political figures close to ex-President 
Ter-Petrossian (namely Raffi Hovannisian and his supporters) 
and some of the rank-and-file Armenian National Movement 
(ANM) members to re-enter the political scene and re-gain 
lost territory.  Given Raffi Hovannisian's track record of 
joining and then departing coalitions, however, it is still 
too early to predict whether or not he will remain in the 
group long enough to be the new alliance's potential poster 
child in any upcoming nationwide campaign.  While at present 
the alliance is potentially more of a threat to the 
opposition than to the Kocharian administration, the news of 
the emerging alliance indicates that there is some movement 
within Armenia's opposition.  Even if the opposition survives 
this latest internal power shift, it is still unlikely that 
they will pose a serious threat to Kocharian in the near 
future. 
EVANS